Transport Research and Policy Analysis Bulletin
The Transport Research and Policy Analysis Bulletin is a quarterly bulletin by the Department of Transport that profiles the work being undertaken by the Policy and Communications Division (PAC), and shares information of interest to the transport sector and broader community.
Download the latest Transport Research and Policy Analysis Bulletin - Spring 2009 (PDF, 355 KB, 4 pp.). The main articles are also featured on this page, as well as access to past editions.
Articles on this page:
Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity (VISTA) 2009
Data collection for the
Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity 2009 (VISTA 09) is now underway. Starting in July this year and running to June 2010, VISTA 09 will obtain detailed travel information from approximately 10,000 households in the Melbourne metropolitan area. A further 5,000 households from across Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton and Latrobe will also be surveyed. All members of households selected to participate will be asked to complete a travel diary for a specified day in the year. Data collected includes the purpose, time, destination and method of all travel made, as well as basic demographic information.
VISTA 09 data will be used to update the Department's transport modelling tools and provide short-term trend analyses of travel behaviour in the state.
VISTA 09 represents a second round of detailed diary-based data collection by the Department. Results from the first survey (VISTA 07) conducted in the 2007/08 financial year will be available online by the start of October at
www.transport.vic.gov.au/vista. This includes a summary brochure of aggregate travel characteristics in Melbourne and regional centres, and an online analysis tool allowing specific transport themes to be explored by Local Government Area.
This online tool will provide a quick method for directly comparing VISTA 07 travel findings across regions, and will be developed further depending on user needs. Specific requests for additional analysis themes, and for data not included online, can be made by
emailing the VISTA survey team.
Climate Change Risks to Infrastructure
The world's climate is changing with higher temperatures, altered rainfall patterns and more frequent or intense weather events. In Victoria both maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.8 degrees Celsius since 1950. At the same time, Victoria has experienced a decline in total rainfall of 13 per cent. Under a high emissions growth scenario, the average annual temperature could increase by as much as 2.7 degrees by 2070 and the projected average number of days over 35 degrees could climb from 9 per annum up to 20 per annum (Climate Change in Victoria: 2008 Summary, State Government of Victoria).
Climate change poses a significant risk for the transport sector. It has the potential to severely disrupt transport services or lead to damage to transport infrastructure. Transport infrastructure needs to be designed, developed and maintained to meet current and future climate conditions. Recent studies emphasise that designing, constructing and operating infrastructure and services on the assumption that the future climate will be similar to that experienced in the past would present a significant risk to infrastructure owners and operators, along with the communities, services and businesses that rely on them. Historical conditions are no longer relevant.
The Sustainable and Active Transport Policy Branch within the Department of Transport has recently initiated an update of risk assessments through conduct of Divisional workshops (August 2009). This process includes a comprehensive and consistent analysis of the implications of expected climatic changes for transport operations and assets. This will assist in providing a better understanding of the costs of assets and activities to manage risks associated with climate change impacts.
As more information becomes available, it is expected that this work will be monitored and updated regularly through a portfolio-wide process.
Upcoming Conferences
Transport, Social Disadvantage and Well-Being - Where to from Here?
The Transport and Social Inclusion Committee will be hosting the 'Transport, Social Disadvantage and Well-Being - Where to from Here?' Conference on Thursday 19 November 2009. The aim of the conference is to identify current and emerging transport issues and options that support and encourage social inclusion in Victoria. The objectives of the day will be to:
- Discuss the links between transport provision, social inclusion and well-being issues by:
- Identifying how transport supports inclusive communities
- Identifying what has happened elsewhere and what can be learnt.
- Provide an update on transport initiatives.
Details of the event will be released shortly. If you have any queries or wish to attend the event, please contact Emily Simatos, Social Transit Unit, Public Transport Division, DOT on (03) 9655 1099.
Australasian Transport Research Forum
The 32nd Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF) will be held in Auckland, New Zealand from 29 September to 1 October 2009. ATRF is recognised by both the public and private sectors as the main transport planning and policy forum in Australasia. The ATRF brings together policymakers, advisers, researchers and practitioners from transport disciplines to share and build upon the latest research and initiatives. The Department of Transport has been a long-term supporter of ATRF, having co-hosted both the 2007 conference in Melbourne and the 2008 conference on the Gold Coast.
This year, the Policy and Communications Division has submitted five papers to be presented at ATRF:
- 'Emissions and energy use by road freight vehicles under alternative freight land use development options'
- 'Potential early adopters of electric vehicles in Victoria'
- 'Income and journey to work patterns – Investigations for Melbourne 1996, 2001 and 2006'
- 'Addressing workforce issues in the road freight sector'
- 'Walking and cycling access from a local government perspective: Findings and policy implications'.
The Public Transport Division and Metlink have also submitted a paper, 'Changes in Travel Demand in Melbourne - is it time for a new paradigm?'
More information is available on the
32nd Australasian Transport Research Forum website.
Impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on Victorian transport demand
The past twelve months have witnessed a period of significant global financial and economic turmoil not previously seen in the post-WWII period. The turmoil began with the failure of major financial institutions in the US and Europe and large falls in the market value of equities. The ensuing confidence slump and severe international credit shortages triggered sharp downturns in private consumption, and housing and business investment. In turn, production, trade and employment have slumped in many countries.
While the Australian economy has demonstrated significant resilience, it is a trade-dependent economy and consumer and business confidence fell sharply in late 2008. The Commonwealth Budget, released in May 2009, forecast that Australia’s real GDP would be stagnant in 2008-09 as a whole, and fall by 0.5 per cent in 2009-10. The conduct of monetary policy by the Reserve Bank, and of fiscal policy by the Commonwealth and State governments, will be crucial to the outcomes for the Australian and Victorian economies in the difficult international context.
The Reserve Bank aggressively cut official cash rates (by four percentage points) over the September 2008 to February 2009 period, and then made another small interest rate cut in April 2009 (just 0.25 percentage points). Reductions in interest rates eased debt-servicing pressures on houses and businesses.
Fiscally, the Commonwealth Government has (1) delivered two major packages to increase consumer spending, give more confidence to first home buyers and increase investment spending in areas where projects can get underway quickly; (2) announced the $43 billion National Broadband Network project; and (3) provided for around $8 billion in additional infrastructure spending from the Building Australia Fund in its 12 May 2009 Budget.
The Victorian Transport Plan, announced in December 2008, is the most notable example of increased spending by the States on infrastructure.
It seems likely that the Victorian and Melbourne economies will experience economic weakness over the next one to two years. The Victorian Budget, released on 5 May 2009, forecast that Victoria’s real gross state product would increase marginally (by 0.25 per cent) in 2009-10 and then rise by a moderate 2.25 per cent in 2010-11.
Weaker consumer and investment demand causes a reduction in freight movements, and it is likely that this is happening already in Victoria and Melbourne. Passenger transport movements in peak periods reflect employment, which is a 'lagging indicator'. While Victoria’s employment is expected to fall in the short-term (the Victorian Budget forecasts a 1 per cent reduction in 2009-10), this does not entail a large fall in the amount of people commuting and thus is unlikely to have a very noticeable effect on demand for peak period public transport.
For those people who live and work near public transport routes, the economic slowdown will affect their travel decisions in different ways. If they are significantly concerned about their employment future, they may rein in their household spending by driving less and using public transport more. On the other hand, the price of petrol looks likely to remain substantially lower than its first-half 2008 highs for the course of the international economic weakness, and this may encourage some people to keep driving to work.
In summary, a slowdown in the rate of growth of public transport patronage and car traffic at peak times is anticipated over the course of 2009-10. Freight movements are likely to be more significantly affected by the slowdown.
Victorian Transport Statistics Portal - 9 months on...
The
Victorian Transport Statistics portal, launched in January this year, has just been updated with new data and improved functionality.
To improve the site's utility, a mapping function has been
developed to enable users to view the data spatially as well as in the existing table and chart formats. The new capability will also allow users to overlay additional transport layers such as train and tram networks and stations.
The information topics that have been updated recently include Motor Vehicles (Registered vehicles by type & age as of March 2008) and Property Sales data for 2008. When accessing the Property Sales data as a thematic map for a particular period, users can also make comparisons over time. Census data is also now available at a Statistical Division, Statistical Subdivision and ABS State Suburb level.
Since the launch of the product in January 2009, the portal has had 50,000 views (to August 2009). According to a user survey of approximately 2,000 respondents, 61 per cent of users are local, state or federal government employees, 17 per cent are from the private sector including consultants and 8 per cent are from the education sector.
Figure 1
Travel Assist: 'Keeping you on the move'
The Travel Assist: ‘Keeping you on the move’ Pilot Program began late last year (see Edition 5: Autumn 2009). The Pilot is trialling a free service designed to assist older Victorians maintain their mobility and continue independent, active and rewarding lifestyles after they reduce or stop driving. In both Monash and the Mornington Peninsula Shire, trained Travel Assist Advisors have worked directly with 100 participants to assess their travel needs and develop a personalised Travel Assist plan. The plans have provided advice for the participants on their local transport options, related support services, programs and available concessions.
The reasons for participation have varied from an immediate need for alternative transport options, to planning ahead for a time when driving may not be an option. Feedback from participants will be sought over the coming months to determine whether the program was effective and appropriate, after which a state-wide release will be considered. The program has been developed by the Department of Transport and the the Department of Planning and Community Development, in partnership with VicRoads, the Transport Accident Commission, RACV, the Municipal Association of Victoria, Mornington Peninsula and Monash Councils.